The Moore Hypothesis
Great news, conservatives: Michael Moore is making a sequel to Fahrenheit 9/11! Why do I say this is good news? Well, let's take a look at what I like to call the "Moore Hypothesis."
- 2000: Bush vs. Gore is the closest election in modern (and perhaps all of) American history, with Bush winning the final tally in the state of Florida by less than 200 votes. Gore wins the popular vote, and had he carried Florida (or a number of other tightly contested states) he would have won the Electoral College as well. Michael Moore stumps for Ralph Nader. Result: the Nader campaign is thought to have taken votes away from Gore, and is largely blamed for the closeness of the race.
- 2002: Michael Moore releases "Bowling For Columbine" and comes out with support for a multitude of Congressional Democratic candidates, claiming that the "52% who didn't vote for Bush" would "Take Back America" in the midterm elections. Result: the Republicans not only hold on to their majority in Congress, but expand it.
- 2004: Michael Moore releases "Fahrenheit 9/11." During the Democratic primaries, Moore throws his support behind General Wesley Clark, until Clark withdraws from the race after performing poorly. Moore promotes Democratic candidate John Kerry, who is running against the incumbent George W. Bush. Result: Bush widens his margin of victory from 2000, winning 'beyond the reach of litigation,' and is the first president since 1988 to win a majority of the popular vote. The Republicans further expand their hold on Congress, in both the House and Senate.
So, for the last three election cycles, every time that Moore has released a film or endorsed a candidate, the opposing party has benefited.
If Moore is revving up his political machine again, that's great news for the Republicans...unless the filmmaker decides to swap parties.
Solidaridad
